El Niño Impact on Sri Lanka Expected to Be Less Severe Than Feared

The Director of the Climate Change Secretariat, Leel Randeni, has stated that Sri Lanka is unlikely to experience a severe impact from the global El Niño phenomenon. While El Niño is driven by rising sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, meteorologists predict its contribution to higher global temperatures may occur from February onwards. Randeni noted that Sri Lanka is currently receiving Southwest Monsoon rains, which are expected to continue until September, with intermittent rainfall possible in July and August, though overall monsoon rainfall is anticipated to decrease.

Officials from the Department of Meteorology have issued a new forecast indicating that El Niño may trigger increased rainfall and potential flood risks in certain parts of Sri Lanka during October and November 2026. While El Niño conditions are currently at a weak level, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a greater than 60% probability of the phenomenon strengthening into a strong or very strong state by December 2026, January 2027, and February 2027.

The Meteorological Department confirms El Niño has begun to develop and is already influencing reduced rainfall in the Southwest region. A decrease in current rainy weather is expected from July 2026. Climate change expert Dr. Ranjith Punyawardena held an awareness session on June 10th at the Ministry of Plantation and Community Infrastructure, discussing potential risks and precautionary measures, particularly for the plantation industry. Water conservation is highlighted as a mitigation measure.