El Niño Impact on Sri Lanka Expected to Be Less Severe Than Feared

Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi predicts rainfall exceeding 100 millimetres during October and November 2026, influenced by a strengthening El Niño and a weak positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In contrast, Agriculture Director General Thushara Wickramarachchi stated that food production for the Yala and Maha seasons will not be negatively impacted by El Niño. This is attributed to the Yala harvest concluding before July, over 60% water storage in major reservoirs, and expected sufficient monsoon rainfall for the Maha season.

Cabinet Spokesman Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa announced on June 16th that the government is actively formulating plans and paying close attention to the predicted El Niño phenomenon. Discussions have been held under the patronage of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, with ministers discussing steps at the ministerial level. The government is taking steps to mitigate potential impacts on agriculture, food production, and water resources, with ministries examining possible conditions expected during July and August and the first few months of next year.

The government is actively preparing for the predicted El Niño situation. Cabinet Spokesperson Minister Nalinda Jayatissa announced on June 16th that discussions have been held under the President's leadership, and ministers are discussing measures at the ministerial level. Future plans are being formulated based on forecasts from the Meteorological Department. Experts, including Leel Randeniya from the Climate Change Secretariat, reiterate that any effects from El Niño are likely to emerge only after February 2027, aligning with previous reports that the Southwest Monsoon will continue until September 2026.